Our subscribers who had global travel giant Thomas Cook Group plc in their portfolios as the company's debt soared and working capital eroded were provided ample time to sidestep financial risk thanks to the FRISK® score.
Headquartered in London, Thomas Cook Group's hotels and resort brands include Sentido, Sunprime, Sunwing, Sunconnect, Smartline and Casa Cook. The company also has airline operations in Belgium, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom with a fleet of more than 90 aircraft under the Thomas Cook Airlines and Condor brands. Their FRISK® score, which is 96% accurate at predicting public company bankruptcy risk, was anchored at a lowest-possible "1" for nearly one full calendar year before their Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing.
In this Bankruptcy Case Study, we look into the reason why a luxury holiday provider quickly went from fun and sun to an unhappy holiday. One major factor considered in reviewing the financials is a persistent negative tangible net worth, suggesting that the company had long ago exhausted all of its loanable collateral.
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Our FRISK® score model incorporates four powerful risk inputs:
- “Merton”-type model of stock market capitalization and volatility
- Financial ratios, including those used in the Altman Z”-Score Model
- Bond agency ratings from Fitch, Moody's, and DBRS Morningstar
- Website click pattern data from CreditRiskMonitor® subscribers, representing key credit decision-makers at nearly 40% of current Fortune 1000 companies plus thousands of other large companies worldwide
Since the start of 2017, the FRISK® score’s rate of success in capturing public company bankruptcy is 96%. In any given year, you can count on one hand the times we miss – and in those outlier cases, the circumstances deal with unusual, unforeseen events such as natural disasters and CEO fraud.
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About Bankruptcy Case Studies
CreditRiskMonitor® Bankruptcy Case Studies provide post-filing analyses of public company bankruptcies. Our case studies educate subscribers about methods they can apply to assess bankruptcy risk using our proprietary FRISK® score, robust financial database, and timely news alerts.
In nearly every case, a low FRISK® score gave our subscribers early warning of financial distress within a one-year time horizon. Our proprietary FRISK® score predicts bankruptcy risk at public companies with 96% accuracy. The score is formulated by a number of indicators including stock market capitalization and volatility, financial ratios, bond agency ratings from Moody’s, Fitch and DBRS, and crowdsourced behavioral data from a subscriber group that includes nearly 40% of the Fortune 1000 and thousands more worldwide.
Whether you are new to credit analysis or have decades of experience under your belt, CreditRiskMonitor® Bankruptcy Case Studies offer unique insights into the business and financial decline that precedes bankruptcy.